Predicting the future

原文

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.

In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.

Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.

译文

预测未来是出了名的困难。谁能想象得到，例如，在1970年代中期，到20世纪末，计算机会在人们家中像电视机一样普遍？在1970年代，计算机已经相当常见了，但仅限于大企业、政府部门和大型组织。这些就是所谓的大型计算机。大型计算机确实非常庞大，往往占据整个空调房间，需要专职技术人员操作，并运行专门编写的软件。尽管这些大型机器依然存在，但它们的大部分功能已经被小型而强大的个人计算机所取代，这些计算机通常被称为PC。

1975年，在美国推出了一种原始的机器，名为Altair。它可以被恰当地描述为第一台“家用计算机”，并指明了未来的方向。1970年代末，又推出了一种名为Apple的机器。在1980年代初期，计算机巨头IBM生产了世界上第一台个人计算机。它运行在一个名为DOS的“操作系统”上，该系统由当时的一家小公司Microsoft生产。IBM个人计算机被广泛复制。从那些简陋的开端，我们已经见证了用户友好的家用计算机和多媒体机器的发展，这些机器如今已广泛使用。

考虑到这些发展的最近性，更令人惊奇的是早在1960年代，一位英国人，Leon Bagrit，就能预言我们今天所知的某些计算机用途。Bagrit驳斥了计算机会自己“思考”并“统治世界”的想法，这是当时人们喜欢相信的。Bagrit预见到了这样一个时代：计算机将小到可以手持，它们能够提供交通堵塞的信息并建议替代路线；它们将在医院中帮助医生诊断疾病；它们将减轻办公室职员和会计师的单调、重复的文书工作。所有这些计算机用途如今都已司空见惯。当然，Leon Bagrit不可能预见到互联网的发展，这种全球系统使我们能够使用与电话网络相连的计算机，瞬间与世界任何地方的任何人沟通。他也无法预见到我们如何使用互联网获取关于每一个已知主题的信息，从而在我们家中屏幕上阅读，甚至打印出来。计算机变得越来越小、越来越强大、越来越便宜。这就是为什么Leon Bagrit的预言特别了不起。如果他或像他这样的人今天还活着，他也许能告诉我们未来五十年会发生什么。

词汇表

predicting

动词

英:/prɪˈdɪktɪŋ/

美:/prɪˈdɪktɪŋ/

定义

1. 预测 - The act of saying or estimating that a specified thing will happen in the future.

例子: Predicting the weather accurately is challenging for meteorologists.

例子: She is skilled at predicting market trends based on data analysis.

近义词

forecasting: 更侧重于基于数据或模式进行的正式预测，而 'predicting' 更通用，可以是直觉或推测。

anticipating: 强调提前预见并准备，语气更主动，而 'predicting' 更中性。

foreseeing: 暗示一种预知能力，常用于长远或直觉性预测，与 'predicting' 的科学性相比更具哲学意味。

反义词:

recalling, forgetting, ignoring

用法

常用于科学、技术或日常语境中描述未来事件的估计，常搭配如 'predicting outcomes'（预测结果），但需注意其不确定性。

形式:

原形: predict, 过去式: predicted, 过去分词: predicted, 现在分词: predicting, 第三人称单数: predicts, 复数形式不适用: N/A

关键句型 "Who could have imagined that [clause]?"

定义

这个句型是一种用于表达惊讶或难以置信的疑问句，常用于讨论过去无法预料的事件。结构为：Who could have imagined（谁能想象）+ that + [clause]（从句），其中 [clause] 描述具体情况。根据《剑桥英语语法》教材，这是一个以情态动词 could have 引导的疑问句，表示对过去可能性的推测，强调事件的不可预测性。它简洁有力，帮助学习者表达对历史或变化的惊叹。

例如，在文章中，“Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets?” 这个句型突出科技发展的不可思议。

用法

此句型主要用于非正式讨论或叙述中，表达对过去的假设或遗憾，常见于故事、文章或对话中。规则：以 Who 开头，形成疑问句，could have + past participle 表示过去的可能性，后面跟 that 引导的从句。

在语法体系中，它属于情态动词的过去完成式，用于推测，与其他句型如 "I could have done" 类似，但这里是疑问形式。横向比较：与 "Could you imagine that?" 相比，这个句型更侧重过去（使用 have），而后者更一般化；与 "It's hard to believe that" 相比，它更口语化，带有情感色彩。跨语法联系：它涉及情态动词和从句结构，学生可以联系学习其他情态动词如 would have，用于条件句中（如 "If I had known, I would have acted differently"），从而建立更全面的过去假设框架。

这个句型在实际中常用于科技、历史或个人反思场景，帮助强化语言的表达力。

注意事项

学生容易犯的错误包括时态混淆，例如用 can have 代替 could have，导致句意从过去推测变成现在（如 "Who can have imagined" 听起来不自然）；另一个常见问题是没有正确使用 that 从句，可能会遗漏或错误连接。纠正建议：练习时，确保 could have 后跟过去分词，并用逗号分隔附加信息。提供具体例句：

错误示例：Who could imagine that computers are common now?  // 错误：应为过去推测。
正确示例：Who could have imagined that computers would become so common?

另外，注意语调要上扬，以体现疑问的惊讶感，避免平淡阅读。

练习

一个原创例子：假设你在讨论智能手机的兴起，你可以说：“Who could have imagined that, in the 1990s, mobile phones would become as essential as wallets?” 学生可以替换 [clause]，如用 “people would travel to Mars” 改成 “Who could have imagined that people would travel to Mars by 2050?” 这能帮助学生应用到科技或日常生活场景中，鼓励他们用自己的话语扩展，例如在朋友聚会时讨论流行趋势。

通过这种替换，学生能加深对句型的掌握，并练习在口语中的流利使用。

额外内容

背景知识：这个句型源于英语中情态动词的演变，特别是在20世纪的文学和新闻中流行，用于表达时代变迁的惊奇。对比分析：与中文的 "谁能想到..." 类似，但英语版本更正式，通过 could have 结构强调过去假设性。而在法语中，类似表达如 "Qui aurait pu imaginer que..."，也使用条件语气，突出了跨语言的共通点。这能丰富学生的文化视野，鼓励他们在学习中探索语言的演化历史。

关键句型 "as [adjective] as [noun]"

定义

这个句型用于比较两个事物在某个方面的相似度，结构为：as + [adjective]（形容词）+ as + [noun]（名词或从句），表示两者在程度上的平等。根据《牛津英语语法》权威资源，它是一种标准的比较结构，用于强调平衡或等同关系，常在描述变化或对比时出现。

文章中的例子是 “computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets”，这里 common 是形容词，TV sets 是名词，句型突出了计算机普及程度的相似性。

用法

此句型广泛应用于日常对话、文章和描述中，表示事物间的平等比较。规则：第一个 as 后跟形容词，第二个 as 后跟名词、短语或从句；它常与情态动词或将来时结合，如文章中的 “would be as common as”。

在语法体系中，它属于比较级结构的一部分，与其他比较如 “more than” 或 “less than” 相关。横向比较：与 “not as [adjective] as” 相比，这个句型表示积极平等（如 “as good as”），而后者表示不如；与 “the same as” 相比，as [adjective] as 更强调程度上的相似，而不是完全相同。跨语法联系：学生可以扩展到其他结构，如 “as [adverb] as” （如 “as quickly as”），或与条件句结合（如 “It would be as useful as if it were free”），从而连接到更广的比较和假设语法点中。

这有助于学生在写作和口语中构建更精确的描述。

注意事项

学生常犯的错误是形容词的误用或结构不完整，例如用一般形容词代替（如 “as common than” 错误，应为 “as common as”）；另一个问题是忽略上下文，导致比较对象模糊。纠正建议：始终确保两个 as 都出现，并选择合适的形容词。提供例句：

错误示例：Computers are common as TV sets.  // 错误：缺少第二个 as。
正确示例：Computers are as common as TV sets in homes.

此外，注意当比较对象是不可数名词时，确保句型流畅，避免添加不必要的冠词。

练习

原创例子：在现代生活中，你可以说：“Smartphones are as essential as keys in our daily routine.” 学生可以替换 [adjective] 和 [noun]，如改成 “Exercise is as important as diet for health”，并应用到个人场景，例如在日记中写 “Reading is as enjoyable as watching movies for me。”

这种练习能让学生在贴近生活的语境中练习，增强实际应用能力。

额外内容

背景知识：这个句型起源于古英语的比较形式，在莎士比亚时代已广泛使用，反映了英语表达精确性的演变。对比分析：与西班牙语的 “tan [adjective] como” 类似，结构相似但西班牙语使用 "tan" 而非重复 "as"，这能帮助学生理解不同语言的比较机制。通过这种对比，学生能更深刻地体会英语的独特之处，并应用于跨文化交流中。