原文
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.
译文
预测未来是出了名的困难。谁能想象得到，例如，在1970年代中期，到20世纪末，计算机会在人们家中像电视机一样普遍？在1970年代，计算机已经相当常见了，但仅限于大企业、政府部门和大型组织。这些就是所谓的大型计算机。大型计算机确实非常庞大，往往占据整个空调房间，需要专职技术人员操作，并运行专门编写的软件。尽管这些大型机器依然存在，但它们的大部分功能已经被小型而强大的个人计算机所取代，这些计算机通常被称为PC。
1975年，在美国推出了一种原始的机器，名为Altair。它可以被恰当地描述为第一台“家用计算机”，并指明了未来的方向。1970年代末，又推出了一种名为Apple的机器。在1980年代初期，计算机巨头IBM生产了世界上第一台个人计算机。它运行在一个名为DOS的“操作系统”上，该系统由当时的一家小公司Microsoft生产。IBM个人计算机被广泛复制。从那些简陋的开端，我们已经见证了用户友好的家用计算机和多媒体机器的发展，这些机器如今已广泛使用。
考虑到这些发展的最近性，更令人惊奇的是早在1960年代，一位英国人，Leon Bagrit，就能预言我们今天所知的某些计算机用途。Bagrit驳斥了计算机会自己“思考”并“统治世界”的想法，这是当时人们喜欢相信的。Bagrit预见到了这样一个时代：计算机将小到可以手持，它们能够提供交通堵塞的信息并建议替代路线；它们将在医院中帮助医生诊断疾病；它们将减轻办公室职员和会计师的单调、重复的文书工作。所有这些计算机用途如今都已司空见惯。当然，Leon Bagrit不可能预见到互联网的发展，这种全球系统使我们能够使用与电话网络相连的计算机，瞬间与世界任何地方的任何人沟通。他也无法预见到我们如何使用互联网获取关于每一个已知主题的信息，从而在我们家中屏幕上阅读，甚至打印出来。计算机变得越来越小、越来越强大、越来越便宜。这就是为什么Leon Bagrit的预言特别了不起。如果他或像他这样的人今天还活着，他也许能告诉我们未来五十年会发生什么。